June 2010		

Earls Court
& West Kensington Opportunity Area
Transport Report
Core Document Number: RD50 Particpant Number: 795

Key Point Summary
1	This Transport Report, prepared on behalf of Capital & Counties Properties PLC (C&C),
summarises the outputs of the Earls Court Transport Study (ECTS) which has been undertaken in
accordance with a methodology and assumptions agreed with Transport for London (TfL). It comprises a strategic level assessment of transport capacity for the Earls Court & West Kensington Opportunity Area (ECWKOA) and provides underlying evidence about the capacity of the ECWKOA over the next 20-25 years. The Report supports representations and written statements submitted by C&C in relation to the Examination in Public of the draft Replacement London Plan (RLP).
2	The Report tests a series of development scenarios (low, medium and high) which cover a range of
population and employment density assumptions for the ECWKOA. The tested scenarios cover a
range of housing and job capacity figures which all significantly exceed the current draft RLP allocation for the ECWKOA.
3	The development scenarios, following the advice of TfL, take into account all forecast growth in
housing and employment across London during the RLP plan period, including other Opportunity Areas, and the associated aggregate impacts. Importantly, for a variety of reasons set out in this
Report, the technical assessments carried out are conservative, worst-case analyses, with a likelihood that the actual impacts will be less than forecast at this time. By way of example, it should be noted that the ECTS does not include the current use of the Earls Court Exhibition Centre, which already generates significant levels of public transport and vehicle demand.
4	The key conclusion is that the assessment carried out by the ECTS does not raise significant
issues regarding the capacity of the transport network to cater for the development scenarios and expected growth and development across London.
5	The technical assessments show that:
A.	public transport demand, which would increase gradually over a likely 15 to 20 year programme for the construction and occupation of ECWKOA development, can be satisfactorily accommodated for each of the development scenarios reflecting the committed investments in upgrading the existing infrastructure; and
B.	the highway network can also satisfactorily accommodate the gradual increase in development scenario traffic which would occur over the likely 15 to 20 year programme. In headline terms, even the High Development Scenario involves net traffic increases above the 'no development scenario” of only 2.9% and 1.6% in the AM and PM peaks respectively. As noted at 3 above, the 'no development scenario” excludes the existing event traffic at Earls Court Exhibition Centre and is therefore a worst-case comparison.
6	Overall, the ECTS clearly provides strong robust evidence on transport grounds to support a
significant increase in the proposed job and housing figures for the ECWKOA in accordance with
C&C’s representations. The analysis demonstrates that there is sufficient capacity within the transport network to accommodate all the development scenarios tested, some of which are higher than being sought as the minimum by C&C at this stage. The ECTS serves to justify C&C’s case that the current figures are not sufficiently strategic and do not represent up to date evidence or take into account the role of public transport accessibility and capacity.
7	It is important to recognise that development quantum much greater than that currently proposed in
RLP can be accommodated without requiring significant investment in new transport infrastructure. This is a major advantage of ECWKOA when compared to other Opportunity Areas. The existing Public Transport Accessibility Level (PTAL) of the ECWKOA is already 6a ('excellent”) in places, and the improvements being considered by C&C plus the committed London Underground and

West London Line improvements would result in the vast majority of the ECWKOA having excellent public transport accessibility in the future.
8	The ECTS outputs will be taken forward to further detailed work as the ECWKOA masterplanning
progresses, but they provide at this stage a clear indication of the transport capacity of the ECWKOA, which accords with the C&C representations to the RLP.

1	Introduction
1.1.1	This report has been prepared for Capital & Counties Properties PLC (C&C) on behalf of Earls
Court and Olympia Group (ECOG) to support its representations on the draft Replacement London Plan (RLP).
1.1.2	Written statements have been submitted for the purposes of the RLP Examination in Public (EiP),
which refer to this report. This report forms part of the RLP Core Document Library.
1.1.3	C&C, in collaboration with TfL and LBHF as landowners, is promoting a major mixed use
development scheme for the Earls Court Regeneration Area (ECRA) which forms the majority of the Earls Court West Kensington Opportunity Area (ECWKOA), along with the Seagrave Road Car Park site. The Seagrave Road Car Park site, which is owned by C&C, is also anticipated to come forward for development.
1.1.4	The ECRA is bounded to the east by Warwick Road, to the south by Lillie Road, to the west by
North End Road and the western boundaries of the West Kensington and Gibbs Green housing estates and to the north by the A4/Talgarth/West Cromwell Road corridor.
1.1.5	The ECRA has an overall area of 28 ha and comprises three main landholdings as shown on
Figure 1:
A.	Earls Court Exhibition Centre owned and operated by ECOG;
B.	the West Kensington and Gibbs Green Housing Estates, owned by LBHF; and
C.	Lillie Bridge Depot, owned by TfL.
1.1.6	The Seagrave Road Car Park is 2.8 ha in area and currently provides car parking and exhibitor
vehicle marshalling for the Earls Court Exhibition Centre complex which will be redeveloped for new uses as part of the scheme.
1.1.7	The total area of the ECWKOA is some 31 ha.

Figure 1 – ECWKOA sub-areas

	1.1.8	The RLP identifies ECWKOA as one of London’s Opportunity Areas “for accommodating large
scale development to provide substantial numbers of new employment and housing... with a mixed and intensive use of land and assisted by good public transport accessibility” (The London Plan, 2009, p. 262).
	1.1.9	The existing Public Transport Accessibility Level (PTAL) of the ECRA varies from a maximum of
6a (“excellent”) around the Warwick Road access to Earls Court station down to a minimum of 3 (“moderate”) between the West London Line and North End Road, due to the lack of a pedestrian
connection across the railway. When a connection has been formed across the railway (as proposed by C&C), then the committed London Underground and West London Line improvements would result in a future PTAL of 6a (“excellent” public transport accessibility) across the entire ECRA site. The Seagrave Road site has existing PTALs of between 6a at its northern end, and reducing to 3 at its southern edge. The future PTALs across the Seagrave Road site will increase due to the programmed London Underground and West London Line improvements,
although a small area at the southern edge is unlikely to increase beyond PTAL 4 (“good”).
1.1.10 The ECWKOA is included in Table A1.1 of the RLP, with an indicative employment capacity of 7,000 jobs plus a minimum of 2,000 new homes. The strategic policy direction for the ECWKOA explains that “a transport study will determine the optimum development capacity for the area”.
1.1.11 C&C’s representations and statements in relation to the RLP set out the case for increasing the minimum extent of development anticipated for the ECWKOA within the RLP.
1.1.12 This report summarises the outputs of the ECTS to date. The report takes forward and refines the Summary Transport Study that formed part of C&C's initial submissions in relation to the Mayor’s “A New Plan for London” (April 2009). It supports C&C's representations that there is capacity to

significantly increase the current ECWKOA allocation to allow a higher quantum of development, and in particular supports an indicative allocation of 24,000 new jobs and a minimum of 8,000 new homes in the ECWKOA as sought by C&C.
1.1.13 The ECTS at this stage is of a robust strategic nature appropriate for the examination of regional level planning policy in the RLP. It should be afforded considerable weight in determining the
appropriate indicative job and minimum housing figures for the ECWKOA in the RLP. The methodology, approach and assumptions being used in the ECTS have all been approved by TfL, who have been monitoring the progress of the ECTS through regular meetings and by their presence on the ECTS Steering Group. Further detailed assessment work to complete the ECTS will be undertaken as part of scheme design development and the preparation of supplementary planning policy for the ECWKOA.
1.1.14 The transport analyses completed as part of the ECTS to date demonstrate that transport demand can be accommodated for each of the Low, Medium and High development scenarios (as explained below).
1.1.15 The next stages of the ECTS will further refine this strategic conclusion and help develop the Earls Court Transport Improvement Strategy and scenario-specific mitigation measures.

2 The Agreed Approach
2.1.1	The ECTS has been progressed in accordance with a technical methodology that was agreed by
C&C, TfL, the London Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham (LBHF) and the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea (RBKC).
2.1.2	The ECTS was to test a series of development scenarios for the ECWKOA. The development
scenarios were to cover a range of population and density levels in order to inform the capacity of the ECWKOA at a strategic level and provide input to masterplanning work. Section 3 provides more detail on the development scenarios that have been tested.
2.1.3	The agreed methodology requires that the study methods should be consistent with TfL’s analyses
for the London Plan, Mayor’s Transport Strategy (MTS2009) and Sub-Regional (SR) planning workstreams. The agreed methodology also ensures that the analyses could subsequently be used as an evidence base for the emerging core strategies being prepared by LBHF and RBKC as well as background evidence for future transport assessments.
2.1.4	The preparation of the ECTS commenced in November 2009 and has worked through a series of
key stages. Throughout the process, fortnightly progress and steering group meetings have been held so that TfL, LBHF and RBKC were informed of, and agreed, progress, technical issues, information requirements and modelling assumptions.
2.1.5	The next stages of the ECTS will run in parallel with the masterplanning of the ECWKOA. These
next stages will be:
A.	detailed highway capacity testing of local junctions using VISSIM;
B.	further discussions and consultation with TfL and LBHF and RBKC; and
C.	development of the Earls Court Transport Improvement Strategy and scenario-specific mitigation measures.

3 Methodology
3.1	OBJECTIVES AND PRINCIPLES
3.1.1	The overall study objective is to test ECWKOA development scenarios using models, study
methods and assumptions which are consistent with other TfL strategic studies. From these assessments, this report will then inform policy formulation and assist in further detailed work to determine the development capacity of the ECWKOA.
3.1.2	The use of the models has included looking forward to 2031, which is the formal end date of the
RLP. The transport implications of the ECWKOA development scenarios in 2031 are each compared with the 2031 Base Case, which includes all of the GLA forecast growth across London outside of the ECWKOA and no forecast growth within it, and therefore represents the baseline for assessing the development scenarios. The time periods to be assessed were the weekday morning and evening peak periods (0700 to 1000 and 1600 to 1900 respectively).
3.2 DEFINITION OF DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS
3.2.1	The ECTS has assessed a series of development scenarios to inform the redevelopment of the
ECWKOA. The scenarios relate to different population and employment levels that could be generated from the redevelopment of the ECWKOA as a whole and have been informed by the London Plan density matrix and by evidence base documents submitted by C&C, including the Place Making Report (submitted as part of its representations on the draft RLP in January 2010).
3.2.2	Three development scenarios have been analysed, each of which involves significantly higher
amounts of development than the draft RLP currently anticipates within the ECWKOA, with the Medium development scenario representing numbers of homes and jobs in line with the indicative level of jobs and minimum level of homes for the ECWKOA sought by C&C in its representations to the draft RLP.
3.2.3	The Development Scenarios are summarised in Table 1:
Table 1 – Development Scenarios
Scenario	Residential	Employment	
'Low”	5,560 units	12,165 jobs	
'Medium”	8,286 units	24,050 jobs	
'High”	9,783 units	31,895 jobs	

	3.2.4	In each case the residential and employment numbers relate to development within the ECWKOA
as a whole, including the ECRA and the Seagrave Road Car Park site (see below).
	3.2.5	The residential and employment numbers have been derived using the London Plan density matrix
and other assumptions. The detail of these assumptions is contained in Appendix A, which is a summary of C&C's density calculations that have been previously submitted as part of C&C's representations to the consultation on the RLP.
	3.2.6	The Development Scenario car parking numbers have been derived from restrained parking ratios
of only 0.4 space per dwelling and one space per 2,000sqm of employment space which are within maximum parking policy standards.

3.2.7	WSP carried out a parking capacity survey in January 2009. This found that 2,496 parking spaces
are currently available in the ECWKOA, primarily associated with the Earls Court Exhibition Centre. Comparing the existing number of parking spaces with the parking allocations for each Development Scenario, the Low Development Scenario (approximately 2300 spaces) involves a slight decrease from the existing situation and the Medium and High Development Scenarios involve increases of approximately 1,000 and 2,000 respectively. These increases have however been fully taken into account by the assessment, with the additional parking being mostly for residential use and hence less intensively used during peak hours when compared with the existing commercial parking.
3.3 EXPLANATION OF TRANSPORT MODELS
3.3.1	In accordance with the agreed methodology and approach, the Development Scenarios were
studied using the established TfL hierarchy of land use and transport models.
3.3.2	LTS (London Transportation Studies) is a strategic four-stage multi modal model of London, which
includes all public transport and all strategically important roads in London. LTS has been used in the appraisal of the London Plan, the Mayor’s Transport Strategy, and all major transport schemes currently being considered by TfL. LTS contains a large number of zones which relate broadly to administrative boundaries, topographical changes or to changes in urban form, such as major roads or rail corridors. The ECWKOA sits in three LTS zones which are referenced Zone 2020, Zone 2025 and Zone 2030. The ECRA land in RBKC is within Zone 2020, and the ECRA land in LBHF is within Zone 2025. The Seagrave Road Car Park site is in Zone 2030. LTS has been used to generate the trip distributions (origin and destination flows for each LTS zone) for each of the Development Scenarios. These are output in the form of travel demand matrices for person trips, car based trips, public transport trips and walking / cycling for the three-hour AM and PM peak periods. These outputs then become the input data for the Railplan and CLoHAM modelling, subject to a peak hour factor being applied to convert the LTS three-hour peak to the busiest hour within that period for CLoHAM.
3.3.3	Railplan (specifically the Central and Northern Sub-Regional Railplan Model) is a TfL model which
is used to assign the LTS generated public transport trips and associated distribution onto the public transport networks - rail, bus and London Underground. TfL’s consultants, MVA, reviewed the Railplan model to assess its suitability for use on the ECTS. Subject to some minor recoding to allow for differences between modelled and observed flows on the West London Line, they concluded that the model is fit for purpose when assessing the impact of the ECWKOA Development Scenarios on the public transport networks.
3.3.4	CLoHAM (Central London Highway Assignment Model) is a recent TfL model used to assign LTS-
generated highway trips and associated distribution onto the highway network. It was developed in 2009 and is the highway assignment model for central London, based on SATURN software. SATURN has been found to generate accurate assessments of real-life driver behaviour as they adapt to changing conditions on highway networks. MVA concluded that “the model is a reasonable representation of the traffic conditions around the development site for all of the
modelled periods”, and that the model is fit for purpose when assessing the impact of the ECWKOA Development Scenarios on the highway network.
3.3.5	The outputs of the LTS, Railplan and CLoHAM models are sufficient to demonstrate the strategic-
level implications of the ECWKOA development scenarios.

3.4 LTS INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS
3.4.1	The LTS inputs and assumptions fall under two categories: planning and transport. The planning
assumptions relate to the Base Case for 2031, plus the additional growth attributable to the Development Scenarios. The Base Case was based on a “Reference Case” produced by TfL in December 2009 (after publication of the draft RLP). The LTS data inputs for each Development Scenario related to future population, demographics, and employment data derived in accordance with a methodology by Roger Tym and Partners (RTP) which had been developed for the White City study and agreed with the GLA and TfL.
3.4.2	A number of transport interventions are committed and programmed to have been delivered by
2031 and have been taken into account:
Table 2 – Committed Transport Infrastructure Improvements in LTS
Intervention	Current Status	
Upgrade of Piccadilly & District Lines	Planned by TfL for completion by 2020	
West London Line Upgrade	Planned by TfL for completion in 2011	
Crossrail 1	Planned by TfL for completion in 2017	

	3.4.3	The assessments are conservative and robust, meaning they are worst-case analyses, with a
likelihood that the various impacts will be less than forecast in the ECTS. Key examples of the conservative approach taken include:
A.	The baseline assessment does not include the current use of the Earls Court exhibition centre, which already generates significant levels of public transport and vehicle demand. The degrees of change due to the Development Scenarios are therefore over-estimated;
B.	The ECWKOA travel demand is assumed to be entirely in addition to the significant growth forecasts already included in the RLP. There will therefore be some double-counting of future growth as it is likely that the C&C proposals will provide a means of accommodating at least some of the RLP forecast growth rather than being entirely additional growth;
C.	The highway modelling is likely to over-estimate the traffic increase caused by the removal of the Western Extension Zone of the congestion charge area;
D.	The application of LTS forecasting methods to the Development Scenarios is likely to overestimate their traffic generation;
E.	The Railplan model uses a factor of 0.54 to convert the LTS three-hour passenger demands into one-hour demand. While this is the standard “strategic assessment” factor, in reality the passenger demand over the three-hour peak periods is being spread more evenly across each hour and the likelihood over time is the spreading would continue. The hourly public transport demands are therefore over-estimated;
F.	The modelling does not include Crossrail 2 or other improvements which could be implemented between now and the 2031 assessment year;
G.	The forecasts of travel demand generated by LTS are likely to be over-estimated as they do not reflect the mitigation measures in the Earls Court Transport Improvement Strategy.
	3.4.4	It should also be noted that the travel demand generated by the ECWKOA proposals would
gradually build up over a likely 15 to 20 year period for the construction and occupation of development, meaning there would be a lengthy period of time for future travel patterns to adjust to the gradual change in demand on the highway and public transport networks;

4. Analysis
4.1.1	The Railplan and CLoHAM models were run for the 2031 Base Case and each of the Development
Scenarios set out above. The analyses have all used forecasts of travel demand generated by LTS, which are likely to be over-estimates as they do not reflect the potential mitigation measures in the Earls Court Transport Improvement Strategy.
4.1.2	The 2031 Base Case has no additional development and associated trip generation within the
ECWKOA, and so the results reflect increases in travel demand arising outside the ECWKOA due to the future growth forecasted by LTS, with the assumptions set out above applied.
4.1.3 Each of the Development Scenarios was run using two highway networks:
A.	the existing highway network with additional accesses into the ECWKOA from the A4, Lillie Road, Warwick Road and North End Road; and
B.	a network where the ECWKOA accesses on A4 and Lillie Road are connected by a north- south through route with signal-controlled junctions at either end, which would relieve traffic from other roads as well as provide access to future development in the ECRA.
4.1.4	The network with the north/ south through route included the following improvements within the
existing highway boundary to accommodate traffic diverting from the Earls Court One Way System onto the through route, which could be implemented as part of ECWKOA proposals:
A.	Warwick Road/ Old Brompton Road/ Finborough Road - two lanes eastbound would be provided along Old Brompton Road, with a reduction to one lane westbound along Old Brompton Road
B.	Earls Court Road/ Old Brompton Road/ Redcliffe Gardens - a dedicated right turn lane would be provided from Old Brompton Road into Redcliffe Gardens
4.1.5	The results for each Development Scenario are given in terms of the change in trips across a
cordon surrounding the ECWKOA as shown on Figure 2.

Figure 2 – Cordon for Trip Change Assessment

4.2	London Underground Capacity
4.2.1	The percentage change in London Underground travel demand crossing the cordon for each
scenario is summarised below for the AM peak period (which is the ‘worst case’ for Development Scenario increases than the PM peak in each Scenario):
Table 3 - LUL Passenger Flow Changes AM Peak
Scenario	% Change from 2031 Base Case	
	AM Inbound	AM Outbound	
Low Development Scenario	2.2%	1.6%	
Medium Development Scenario	4.1%	2.7%	
High Development Scenario	5.4%	3.5%	

4.2.2 The key indicator used in assessing London Underground performance is the number of standing passengers per sqm. This method has therefore been applied to the District Line links from Earls
Court to Putney Bridge, Hammersmith, Olympia, Paddington and Victoria, together with the Piccadilly Line from Hammersmith to Hyde Park Corner.
4.2.3 The 2031 Base Case (which includes all of the GLA forecast growth across London outside of the ECWKOA and therefore represents the baseline for assessing development scenarios) is forecast to have flows around 25% higher than the present day demand, which will be catered for by the committed capacity upgrades, so reflects the position as it would be in 2031 in the "no development scenario" at ECWKOA. The comparison with the 2031 Base Case thus shows the impact of the proposed development at ECWKOA.
4.2.4 The results in the table above shows that the impact of the ECWKOA development against the 2031 Base Case does not involve any material change against the 2031 Base Case, and the overall balance of standing densities at different links remains similar. This is due to the increase in

demand being mitigated through the committed upgrades, and there being no significant change in the area around the ECWKOA. The Development Scenario demands do not result in any material changes to overall crowding levels in either peak. None of the interim results from the modelling show significant issues with capacity on the London Underground with any of the Development Scenarios in place.
4.3	Rail Capacity
4.3.1	The 2031 Base Case is forecast to have flows some 90-95% higher than the present day demand,
which will be catered for by the already committed capacity upgrades. Again, the comparison with the 2031 Base Case thus shows the impact of the proposed development at ECWKOA.
Table 4 - Rail Travel Demand % Change from 2031 Base Case
Scenario	Rail Travel Demand
% Change from 2031 Base Case	
	AM Inbound	AM Outbound	
Low Development Scenario	4.6%	-0.2%	
Medium Development Scenario	8.5%	-0.7%	
High Development Scenario	11.2%	-1.4%	

4.3.2 The Development Scenario demands do not result in any material changes to overall crowding levels in either peak. The Imperial Wharf - West Brompton and West Brompton – Kensington Olympia links in the northbound AM peak hour (0800-0900) would be the most highly used in terms of impact of the ECWKOA development, but importantly the planned capacity increases would result in less crowding than at present, even in the High Development Scenario. The West London Line capacity has been considered using the same standard categories for the density of standing passengers.
4.3.3	As with London Underground capacity, the indication from the modelling at this stage is that there
would not be material capacity issues associated with the operation of overground rail.
4.4	Bus Capacity
4.4.1	The 2031 Base Case results show that overall bus demand is forecast to fall by some 13-16% from
existing levels. This is due to the tube and rail improvements which create additional passenger capacity and encourage bus passengers to switch onto the faster rail-based modes of travel.
Table 5 - Bus Demand % Change from 2031 Base Case
Scenario	Bus Demand
% Change from 2031 Base Case	
	AM Inbound	AM Outbound	
Low Development Scenario	10.0%	5.9%	
Medium Development Scenario	15.5%	6.5%	
High Development Scenario	19.0%	7.6%	

4.4.2 The results in the table above show that there would be some increases on from the 2031 Base
Case, but overall bus demand would remain below present-day levels, even with the High Development Scenario
4.4.3	Some bus routes would have increases, and mitigation details will be discussed further with TfL.
The mitigation of bus impact is likely to include the incorporation of bus infrastructure including bus stops, bus priority, real-time information and bus layover and driver facilities into the masterplan, as already discussed with TfL Surface Transport, plus a net deficit funding agreement to subsidise the
start-up phase of improved bus services. Again the results at this stage do not indicate any material issues arising out of the implementation of any of the Development Scenarios.
4.5	Highway Network Capacity
4.5.1	CLoHAM predicts the routes which drivers will use in order to minimise their travel time by adjusting
traffic flows and delays across the network until an equilibrium is achieved. The underlying traffic demand in the area (outside the Western Expansion Zone (WEZ) is forecast to increase from the present day until 2031 by around 12% in the AM peak and 18% in the PM peak, mostly due to the removal of the congestion charging Western Extension Zone (WEZ). However, CLoHAM shows the increase in demand by 2031 is accommodated in both peak periods on the most appropriate roads in the network, without excessive additional delays at any one location.
4.5.2 The traffic flow changes on the Figure 2 cordon are summarised below for the No Through Route and With Through Route networks:
Table 6 - Highway Network Flow % Change from 2031 Base Case - AM
Scenario	AM Peak Highway Network Flow
% Change from 2031 Base Case	
	No Through Route	With Through Route	
Low Development Scenario	1.65%	3.97%	
Medium Development Scenario	2.39%	4.37%	
High Development Scenario	2.86%	5.51%	

Table 7 - Highway Network Flow % Change from 2031 Base Case - PM
Scenario	PM Peak Highway Network Flow
% Change from 2031 Base Case	
	No Through Route	With Through Route	
Low Development Scenario	0.89%	1.70%	
Medium Development Scenario	1.51%	1.83%	
High Development Scenario	1.56%	2.41%	

4.5.3 The results in the tables above show that the effects of the Development Scenarios on the No Through Route network are all under 3% of the 2031 Base Case traffic. In addition, all of the above
increases are against a baseline which ignores the existing exhibition traffic, which has been recorded as 1.7% of the AM Base Case traffic and 3.3% of the PM Base Case traffic. Compared to the existing event situation, even the High Development Scenario involves a net increase of only 1.2% in the AM peak and a net reduction of 1.7% in the PM peak. Moreover, these results will be
improved by specific scheme mitigation measures which are not yet factored in and can be reasonably predicted to improve the position further.
	4.5.4	Designating the north-south through route as being open to all traffic would result in higher traffic
flows across the cordon because the through route would attract some traffic which does not currently pass through the cordon (for example, some of the existing traffic on the Earls Court One- Way System). However this would not present an issue in highways terms, as described more fully below.
	4.5.5	In either case, the conclusion is that the impact on the Highway Network for each Development
Scenario can be satisfactorily accommodated, particularly when the modelling is refined and scheme specific mitigation measures implemented.

Average Network Speeds
4.5.6	As a further indication of how the local highway network would adjust to the progressive increase in
traffic demand, average speeds have been assessed for each scenario against the 2031 Base Case, and are summarised below.
4.5.7	It should be noted that the most significant change during the period until 2031 is forecast to be the
WEZ removal, which, if implemented, is forecast to contribute to reductions in AM peak hour and PM peak hour average speeds.
Table 8 - Average Highway Network Speeds (km/hr
Scenario	Network	Average Highway
Network Speeds (km/hr)	
		AM Peak	PM Peak	
2031 Base Case	No Through Route	17.2	13.9	
2031 Low Development Scenario	No Through Route	16.9	13.7	
2031 Medium Development Scenario	No Through Route	16.9	13.7	
2031 High Development Scenario	No Through Route	16.8	13.5	
2031 Low Development Scenario	With Through Route	16.9	13.8	
2031 Medium Development Scenario	With Through Route	16.9	13.7	
2031 High Development Scenario	With Through Route	16.7	13.6	

4.5.8	The results in the table above show that reductions in average speeds across the local network due
to the Development Scenarios would be minor. Even the High Development Scenario would involve a reduction of only 0.5 km/hr in the AM peak and 0.4 km/hr in the PM peak. Bearing in mind that the development scenario traffic would join the local network over a 15 to 20 year timescale, these minor changes are not significant.
Highway Network – No Through Route
4.5.9 The impact of the Low Development Scenario is shown by CLoHAM to be limited and a comparison of junction-by-junction delays shows little overall change, due to the diversion choices which longer- distance drivers can make to compensate for the localised traffic changes around the ECWKOA.
There is a small residual increase in delay along the A4 corridor, but detailed local junction analyses and signal timing optimisations should be able to mitigate this as the assessment moves from the strategic to the local level.
4.5.10 The impacts of Medium and High Development Scenario traffic are similar overall to those of the Low Development Scenario although the increases are slightly higher and slightly more widespread as would be expected. The additional demand soon dissipates into the network, and rapidly the impacts become negligible.
Highway Network – With Through Route
4.5.11 In each Development Scenario where all through traffic is able to use the north-south route, a
significant volume of traffic chooses to divert onto the north-south route. Compared with the scenario without a through route, the diverting traffic adds up to 800 vehicles (adding both directions) onto different sections of the through route in each peak hour.
4.5.12 In each scenario, the local network is found to operate with only minor overall changes from the 2031 Base. In addition to the through route and its associated junction improvements, there is scope to improve the operation of the network at the new junction on the A4 (where the signal
timings could be optimised in synchronisation with those of the nearby A4 / North End Road junction) and at the Lillie Road / North End Road double mini-roundabout junction (which could be
improved to allow traffic to flow more smoothly and to be safer for pedestrians and cyclists). Further modelling will enable the development of any necessary mitigation works. Overall, however, the modelling thus far is indicating that the network would operate satisfactorily with each Development Scenario in place.

5. Earls Court Transport Improvement Strategy
5.1.1	An Earls Court Transport Improvement Strategy is being developed for all of the Development
Scenarios, and has been the subject of initial discussions and consultation with TfL. The elements of the Strategy would be common to each of the Development Scenarios and bring substantial benefits to the ECWKOA. The Strategy would reflect a new hierarchy of movement that puts pedestrians and disabled people first followed by cyclists, public transport users and finally other vehicle users last. Applying the hierarchy approach should assist in devising a masterplan that increases the attractiveness of walking, cycling and the use of public transport. This will enable the vast majority of the ECWKOA, including all of the ECRA, to achieve a PTAL level of 6.
5.1.2	The detail of the Strategy is currently being developed, but the principal elements being considered
at this stage are summarised in outline below. Apart from the possible north-south through route and its associated junction improvements, none of these measures have been included in the
modeling input thus far - meaning there is scope for further improvements to the modeling outcomes, which are considered to be worst-case. The transport strategy would primarily be designed to increase permeability, and thus raise PTAL levels, by providing pedestrian routes to the existing stations which are currently severed by the West London Line and the District Line branches. The development of the ECWKOA would provide high levels of accessibility to existing transport infrastructure, and should result in travel demand which has less impact than the ECTS forecasts.
5.1.3	The outline measures which are being considered at this stage are:
5.2	Pedestrians and Cyclists
A.	Design for north-south and east-west permeability throughout the ECWKOA
B.	Create a high-quality public realm
C.	Form high capacity and attractive pedestrian routes to all stations
D.	Off-site pedestrian and cyclist improvements
E.	Extend the a high quality cycle network throughout the site
F.	Provide cycle parking in excess of planning standards
G.	Create a bicycle zone, with public cycle hire and maintenance facilities 5.3 Public Transport
A.	Improve interchange between buses, rail and underground at West Brompton, Earls Court and West Kensington
B.	Provide new on-site bus infrastructure (bus stops, bus priority and driver facilities)
C.	Create a through-route for buses
D.	Increase the frequency of existing bus services
E.	Propose bus links to key locations and areas which lack a tube or rail connection
F.	Propose night bus improvements
5.4 Vehicle Access
A.	Reduce impact on local roads by providing direct access from the A4
B.	Increase the capacity of the A4 / North End Road junction for north-south traffic and for movements into the ECWKOA
C.	Provide a north/south route through the plan area, which has the capacity to relieve through traffic from the Earls Court one-way system
D.	Promoting the use of low carbon vehicle technologies
5.5 Demand Management
A. Develop Smarter Travel measures in liaison with stakeholders, such as:
A.1 promoting low-emission Car Clubs
A.2 encouraging a culture which prioritises public transport, walking and cycling
A.3 adopting parking ratios well below the maximum standards, and control off-site parking impacts
A.4 implementing Travel Plans for all land uses
A.5 introduce personalised travel planning into the ECWKOA
B. Promoting a Low Emission Strategy

6. Further Sensitivity Tests
6.1.1	As part of the assessment, consideration has been given to the cumulative impact of the Vauxhall
Nine Elms Battersea (VNEB) and White City (WC) Opportunity Areas (OA).
6.1.2	The reference case used in the ECTS, as directed by TfL, is based on data which includes
development at both VNEB and WC at a level that is broadly consistent with the levels of development anticipated by the RLP
6.1.3	However, as part of the scenario testing being undertaken for these two OA’s, higher development
quanta are being considered and tested as maximum scenarios.
6.1.4	In relation to the VNEB OA:
A.	The VNEB Transportation Study has been reviewed and the impacts of its maximum development scenario have been considered. The VNEB assessment has also utilised LTS, Railplan and CLoHAM.
B.	The VNEB highway assessment indicates that changes in flow on the highway network surrounding the ECWKOA would be minimal and can be considered as non-material to the ECWKOA assessment.
C.	In terms of impact on the public transport networks, the VNEB OA is proposing an extension to the Northern LUL line and this is forecast to result in some reductions on both the Piccadilly and District Lines. These changes are unlikely to directly benefit the ECWKOA as these changes are modelled as being at Piccadilly Circus and Victoria, although some downstream and upstream benefits may also occur. The assessment undertaken for London Overground relates to services into and out of Victoria and relates to the stations Battersea Park Station, Queenstown Road, and Vauxhall. From this assessment it is therefore considered that no impact is forecast on services or public transport networks beyond these locations, including the West London Line.
6.1.5	In relation to the WC OA:
A.	The WC OA assessment is currently being undertaken and as such, reporting is not currently available for review. Therefore some assessment has been undertaken by using the CLoHAM and Railplan models.
B.	A review of CLoHAM has indicated that only a small proportion of car trips generated by the WC OA would filter through to the road network around the ECWKOA.
C.	Considering the WC OA location relative to the ECWKOA, it is apparent that the WC OA would have a potential impact on the adjacent Central and Hammersmith & City Lines of the London Underground network – but not on the London Underground network adjacent to the ECWKOA.
D.	An assessment of the cumulative impact of the ECWKOA and the maximum WC OA impact on the West London Line has found that the maximum WC OA impact would amount to an immaterial change in standing densities in the peak hour (0.2 passengers per sqm) and would not involve a material change from the existing situation.
6.1.6	It is not therefore considered that any cumulative capacity issues would arise from the development
of the ECWKOA and the other Opportunity Areas referred to above.
7. Conclusions and next steps
7.1.1	This report describes the process of technical assessment that has been carried out to assess the
potential transportation effects of development within the ECWKOA.
7.1.2 The assessment work has been carried out pursuant to a methodology that had been agreed with TfL. TfL has confirmed that the study methods and assumptions are in line with current practice and no concerns have been raised
7.1.3	The assessment carried out has not raised significant issues regarding the capacity of the transport
network to cater for the provision of new homes and jobs in the ECWKOA that are significantly higher than that anticipated by the RLP.
7.1.4 Each of the Low, Medium and High Development Scenarios has been found to be accommodated on the existing highway network with appropriate new junction and access arrangements, subject to further detailed assessment of the local impacts around the proposed junctions. The effects of the Development Scenarios are all under 3% of the 2031 Base Case traffic, which ignores the existing exhibition traffic. Compared to the existing event situation, even the High Development Scenario involves a net increase of only 1.2% in the AM peak and a net reduction of 1.7% in the PM peak
7.1.5 When each Development Scenario is considered with the north-south route being open to all through traffic, there is significant traffic relief to parts of the Earls Court One Way System as some drivers use the new through route to optimise their routes
7.1.6	The Development Scenarios do not result in any material changes to overall London Underground
crowding levels in either peak. None of the interim results from the modelling reveal significant issues with capacity on the London Underground with any of the Development Scenarios in place.
7.1.7	The Development Scenario demands do not result in any material changes to overall crowding
levels on the West London Line in either peak. As with London Underground, the broad indication from the modelling at this stage is that there would not be material capacity issues associated with the operation of overground rail
7.1.8	Some bus routes would show increases, and mitigation details will also be discussed further with
TfL. The results at this stage do not indicate any material issues which cannot be mitigated by bus service improvements.
7.1.9 The policy for the ECWKOA anticipates that the density of development within the ECWKOA will ultimately be determined by a detailed transport assessment. This is an appropriate approach but the work to date provides a clear basis for increasing the indicative employment and minimum numbers of dwellings in line with the representations of C&C.
7.1.10 The next stages of detailed transport analyses will run in parallel with the masterplanning of redevelopment proposals for the Opportunity Area. These next stages will be :
A.	Detailed highway capacity testing of local junctions
B.	Further discussions and consultation with TfL and the Boroughs
C.	The further development of the Earls Court Transport Improvement Strategy and scenario- specific mitigation measures.
Appendix A
Parameters and Assumptions for Defining the Development Scenarios
1.1	The mix and quantum of each Development Scenario has been derived by the planning consultants
DP9 as summarised below for each land use.
1.2 Residential Units
The total residential units for each scenario was based on a range of residential densities derived from the London Plan Density Matrix.
1.3 Total Employment Jobs
The total employment floorspace has been broken down into office, retail, hotel, leisure and community uses to determine the number of jobs generated. The community use floorspace has been calculated by the consultants URS based on the proposed residential and employment floorspace
1.4	For each employment use the following calculations have then been applied to determine the number
of jobs generated:
1.5	Office
1 job per 15 m2 (GEA)
This is the average employment density range promoted in C&C's representations to the RLP.
1.6	Retail
1 job per 20 m2 (GEA)
This is based on an average density for town centre retail (1 job per 20 m2 (N IA)) and restaurant use (1 job per 13 m2 (GIA)) as set out in the English Partnerships Additionality Guide.
1.7	Hotel
1 job per 100 m2 (GEA)
This is based on a room size of 50 m2 which has been derived from the average room sizes for the different hotel categories envisaged by the consultants King Sturge and scheduled below:
Hotel Room Sizes
Hotel Category	Gross Area (m2)/room	
Full Service (4*)	65	
Limited Service (mid market – low)	40	
Hotel Suites (mid market – top)	50	
Serviced Apartments	50	
Boutique	60	

	1.8	A density of 1 job per 2 rooms (100 m2) for a general 3 star hotel, as set out in the English
Partnerships Additionality Guide, has then been applied.
	1.9	Leisure
1 job per 65 m2(GEA)
This is based on an average density for the following leisure uses as set out in the English Partnerships Additionality Guide:
Cultural attractions	1 job per 36 m2 (GIA)
Cinemas	1 job per 90 m2 (GIA)
Amusement & entertainment	1 job per 40 m2 (GIA)
Sports centres	1 job per 90 m2 (GIA)
Private sports clubs	1 job per 55 m2 (GIA)
1.10 Community
1 job per 40 m2 (GEA)
The community uses that comprise the total community floorspace include – GP, dentist, nursery, school, indoor sports facilities, library and community centre.
URS has advised the job generation calculation based on the average for the uses listed above.
1.11 Car Parking
For each of the Development Scenarios the following car parking ratios apply:
Residential	Average of 0.4 spaces / unit
Office	One space per 2,000 m2 (GEA)
Hotel	One space per 40 rooms
Retail	Disabled only
Leisure	Disabled only